Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.85 – 134.01

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±11.7

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 45.88Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 89.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 28.91Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.4 ±11

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 49.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 12.49Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 72.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 9575, 8850

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4917, 9575, 8850

Auto

36.7 23%

Teleop

84.5 53%

Endgame

37.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9659, 6135, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 6135, 10554

Auto

2.4 2%

Teleop

66.4 54%

Endgame

53.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.9pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 97–201
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 207.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.5Season APEX263.4

36.7Auto2.4

84.5Teleop66.4

37.2Endgame53.4

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	33	36
endgame	28	19
foul	5	0
total	81	68

Result

Final score

81 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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