Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.29 – 188.17

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.5 ±11.2

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -41.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 129.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 70.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±11.7

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 8.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 32.43Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 146.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6162, 2200, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 2200, 5032

Auto

40.2 25%

Teleop

98.6 62%

Endgame

20.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1229, 8764, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 8764, 7902

Auto

34.9 18%

Teleop

98.1 50%

Endgame

61.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.3pts

Blue projected score188.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: 123–224
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 201.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.5Season APEX310.6

40.2Auto34.9

98.6Teleop98.1

20.9Endgame61.8

156Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	18
teleop	106	65
endgame	10	41
foul	55	30
total	239	154

Result

Final score

239 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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