Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.68 – 360.38

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.4 ±10.5

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 109.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 39.27Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 2.75Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.8 ±9.3

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 79.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 6.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 274.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 4917, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 4917, 3560

Auto

34.3 25%

Teleop

103.7 76%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 4327, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 4327, 2056

Auto

76.2 21%

Teleop

212.6 59%

Endgame

71.6 20%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.7pts

Blue projected score360.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.7
Score range: 117–395
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 196.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.4Season APEX616.8

34.3Auto76.2

103.7Teleop212.6

-2.3Endgame71.6

63Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	80
teleop	92	253
endgame	37	99
foul	5	5
total	170	437

Result

Final score

170 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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