Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.91 – 212.54

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±11.6

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 5.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 69.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -5.69Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.8 ±10

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 7.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 43.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 160.97Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 10554, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 10554, 11362

Auto

-0.8 0%

Teleop

32.5 49%

Endgame

34.2 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 9062, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11002, 9062, 1325

Auto

31.4 14%

Teleop

98.0 44%

Endgame

91.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.9pts

Blue projected score212.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.6
Score range: 34–249
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 202.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.9Season APEX497.8

-0.8Auto31.4

32.5Teleop98

34.2Endgame91.9

83Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	37
teleop	30	9
endgame	7	6
foul	15	5
total	63	57

Result

Final score

63 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 81.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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