Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.52 – 298.68

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±9.8

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 55.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 137.44Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 31.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.4 ±10.5

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 48.61Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 11.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 238.52Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 5406, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 5406, 7200

Auto

49.7 24%

Teleop

110.8 53%

Endgame

50.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 4308, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11428, 4308, 1114

Auto

62.8 21%

Teleop

174.5 59%

Endgame

57.1 19%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.5pts

Blue projected score298.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.2
Score range: 188–335
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 199.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.5Season APEX582.4

49.7Auto62.8

110.8Teleop174.5

50.1Endgame57.1

32Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	68
teleop	140	137
endgame	62	68
foul	10	20
total	250	293

Result

Final score

250 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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