Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.35 – 228.29

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.8 ±11.7

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 49.52Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 49.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 59.82Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.7 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 54.84Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 122.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 50.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10167, 8850, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10167, 8850, 6632

Auto

42.5 27%

Teleop

72.0 46%

Endgame

41.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 9098, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 9098, 6978

Auto

45.9 21%

Teleop

135.1 61%

Endgame

39.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score228.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.9
Score range: 121–265
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 203.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.8Season APEX405.7

42.5Auto45.9

72Teleop135.1

41.5Endgame39.8

33Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	14
teleop	10	120
endgame	7	74
foul	20	0
total	47	208

Result

Final score

47 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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