Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.78 – 270.57

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.9 ±10.2

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 14.61Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -18.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 167.74Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±11

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 45.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 110.93Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 114.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 6162, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 6162, 1325

Auto

28.9 17%

Teleop

97.6 56%

Endgame

48.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 9575, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11002, 9575, 5032

Auto

21.0 8%

Teleop

160.1 59%

Endgame

92.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.8pts

Blue projected score270.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.8
Score range: 126–309
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 211.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.9Season APEX252.4

28.9Auto21

97.6Teleop160.1

48.3Endgame92.2

159Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	9	6
endgame	7	39
foul	0	0
total	42	59

Result

Final score

42 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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