Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.86 – 114.02

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.5 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 68.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 124.45Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 124.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.9 ±11.7

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 38.09Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -19.93Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 95.86Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 5406, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 5406, 7902

Auto

26.9 9%

Teleop

186.7 60%

Endgame

97.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8764, 11362, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 11362, 4907

Auto

22.5 22%

Teleop

104.6 100%

Endgame

-26.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317.9pts

Blue projected score114pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.8
Score range: 76–356
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 210.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.5Season APEX305.9

26.9Auto22.5

186.7Teleop104.6

97.8Endgame-26.3

67Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	38
teleop	161	45
endgame	91	43
foul	0	0
total	326	126

Result

Final score

326 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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