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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
ONT District McMaster University Event

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.12 – 71.13

55%45%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.4 ±10.4
4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS
D
Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -20.95Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6978QuickStrike Niagara
C
Season APEX 120Event APEX 46.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9062Critical Circuits
B
Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 61.14Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.1 ±12.2
8850Ed Bears
D
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 77.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
1229Tidal Shift
C
Season APEX 100Event APEX -2.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
3560MechaWolves
D
Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -3.34Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 6978, 9062
48
/ 100 compat
Projected
87.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 4308, 6978, 9062
Auto
21.2 26%
Teleop
38.4 48%
Endgame
20.8 26%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8850, 1229, 3560
29
/ 100 compat
Projected
71.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8850, 1229, 3560
Auto
40.7 58%
Teleop
24.7 35%
Endgame
4.5 6%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
  • · Thin endgame coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score87.1pts
Blue projected score71.1pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
16
Score range
33–125
Upset likelihood
45%
Data cutoff
2026-08-16
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 211.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.4Season APEX226.1
21.2Auto40.7
38.4Teleop24.7
20.8Endgame4.5
153Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto2319
teleop3410
endgame2410
foul05
total8144

Result

Final score

81 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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