Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.83 – 211.16

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 160.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.4 ±8.8

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 113.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 35.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 76Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±10.5

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 16.93Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 39.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 154.25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1325, 4907, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 4907, 9575

Auto

31.4 15%

Teleop

98.8 46%

Endgame

85.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4327, 11362, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 11362, 9098

Auto

47.8 24%

Teleop

117.2 58%

Endgame

37.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.8pts

Blue projected score211.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 174–263
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 208.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.4Season APEX338.3

31.4Auto47.8

98.8Teleop117.2

85.9Endgame37.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	31
teleop	265	50
endgame	92	15
foul	0	0
total	431	96

Result

Final score

431 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 160.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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