Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.05 – 214.68

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 55.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±10.5

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 58.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 21.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 84.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±11

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 46.87Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 48.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 119.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 11002, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 11002, 2200

Auto

24.0 15%

Teleop

108.5 66%

Endgame

32.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 11428, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 11428, 5032

Auto

43.1 21%

Teleop

119.8 59%

Endgame

41.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.1pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.6
Score range: 127–252
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 206.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.1Season APEX294.5

24Auto43.1

108.5Teleop119.8

32.6Endgame41.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	24
teleop	135	120
endgame	108	51
foul	0	0
total	255	195

Result

Final score

255 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 55.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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