Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.7 – 305.07

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±12.8

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 85.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -27.7Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -10.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.1 ±9.8

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 185.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 74.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 45.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8850, 6162, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8850, 6162, 4308

Auto

28.5 55%

Teleop

22.4 44%

Endgame

0.5 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2056, 9659, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 9659, 4917

Auto

49.6 16%

Teleop

165.9 55%

Endgame

87.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.7pts

Blue projected score305.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -257.4
Score range: 11–342
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 207.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.8Season APEX606.1

28.5Auto49.6

22.4Teleop165.9

0.5Endgame87.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	77
teleop	6	228
endgame	0	36
foul	5	25
total	30	366

Result

Final score

30 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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