Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.97 – 29.75

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 780.2 ±10.7

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 116.92Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 56.05Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 194Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.5 ±11

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 6.6Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -24.14Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 47.29Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5406, 8764, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

367 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 8764, 1114

Auto

73.8 20%

Teleop

207.8 57%

Endgame

85.2 23%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1229, 6135, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 6135, 9062

Auto

10.5 38%

Teleop

8.3 30%

Endgame

8.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score367pts

Blue projected score29.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 337.2
Score range: -8–405
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 210.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

780.2Season APEX277.5

73.8Auto10.5

207.8Teleop8.3

85.2Endgame8.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	15
teleop	269	17
endgame	48	21
foul	0	10
total	407	63

Result

Final score

407 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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