Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.63 – 201.55

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±11

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 65.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 44.39Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 68.25Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.4 ±11.4

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 30.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 68.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 102.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 11002, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4917, 11002, 2852

Auto

39.2 22%

Teleop

114.4 64%

Endgame

24.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 8850, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11428, 8850, 1325

Auto

32.4 17%

Teleop

108.1 57%

Endgame

49.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.6pts

Blue projected score201.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.9
Score range: 141–240
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 213.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.8Season APEX448.4

39.2Auto32.4

114.4Teleop108.1

24Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	64
teleop	71	106
endgame	30	86
foul	0	0
total	115	256

Result

Final score

115 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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