FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.38 – 475.06

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

479 – 477

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 82.86Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 112.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 112.38Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 216.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 39.42Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 218.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 8089, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 8089, 4152

Auto

48.7 17%

Teleop

161.9 57%

Endgame

75.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 2609, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 2609, 610

Auto

86.3 18%

Teleop

269.2 58%

Endgame

111.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307.4pts

Blue projected score475.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.7
Score range: 257–525
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 956 vs event baseline 279.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.6Season APEX580

48.7Auto86.3

161.9Teleop269.2

75Endgame111.3

60Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	116
teleop	233	275
endgame	161	86
foul	5	0
total	479	477

Result

Final score

479 – 477

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts

Match videos

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