Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
521.01 – 363.27
88%12%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
435 – 396
Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±8.7
Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 37.88Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 226.91Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 256.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 85.69Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 179.95Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 97.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8349, 9785, 7558
80
/ 100 compatProjected
521 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8349, 9785, 7558
Auto
95.2 19%
Teleop
309.5 61%
Endgame
106.8 21%
Strengths
- · 7558 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 22%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5032, 2935, 11270
74
/ 100 compatProjected
363.3 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5032, 2935, 11270
Auto
79.3 23%
Teleop
197.0 56%
Endgame
76.0 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 22%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score521pts
Blue projected score363.3pts
Red win probability88%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 25%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 157.7
- Score range
- 313–571
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
744.1Season APEX575.6
95.2Auto79.3
309.5Teleop197
106.8Endgame76
36Consistency1
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 64 |
| teleop | 269 | 214 |
| endgame | 87 | 118 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 435 | 396 |
Result
Final score
435 – 396
Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts
Match videos
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