FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

275.43 – 449.44

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

459 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 112.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 72.39Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 100.9Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 102.14Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451 ±10.4

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 180.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 114.14Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 155.19Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 8089, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 8089, 4152

Auto

50.1 20%

Teleop

147.4 59%

Endgame

52.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9098, 6978, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 6978, 10554

Auto

55.0 12%

Teleop

258.9 58%

Endgame

131.2 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score275.4pts

Blue projected score449.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -174
Score range: 225–499
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 949 vs event baseline 276.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.6Season APEX451

50.1Auto55

147.4Teleop258.9

52.6Endgame131.2

71Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	90
teleop	230	266
endgame	180	134
foul	5	0
total	459	490

Result

Final score

459 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 112.1 pts

Match videos

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