FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

382.39 – 469.21

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

380 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.4 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 170.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 127.84Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 83.85Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 215.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 36.36Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 217.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 5024, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 5024, 5885

Auto

75.2 20%

Teleop

227.6 60%

Endgame

76.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2702, 2609, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 2609, 610

Auto

88.5 19%

Teleop

271.9 59%

Endgame

99.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score382.4pts

Blue projected score469.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.8
Score range: 333–518
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 888 vs event baseline 274.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.4Season APEX580

75.2Auto88.5

227.6Teleop271.9

76.7Endgame99.2

61Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	73
teleop	222	256
endgame	69	179
foul	5	0
total	380	508

Result

Final score

380 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.