FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

508.97 – 313.83

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

649 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805 ±9.3

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 53.76Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 248.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 206.49Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.5 ±9.8

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 120.94Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 68.17Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 124.72Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

509 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4946, 1241

Auto

120.3 19%

Teleop

340.5 55%

Endgame

157.3 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4039, 3739, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4039, 3739, 8884

Auto

64.0 21%

Teleop

177.2 58%

Endgame

63.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score509pts

Blue projected score313.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.1
Score range: 265–558
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 947 vs event baseline 272.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805Season APEX564.5

120.3Auto64

340.5Teleop177.2

157.3Endgame63.7

0Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	188	63
teleop	255	124
endgame	136	111
foul	70	0
total	649	298

Result

Final score

649 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Match videos

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