FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

498.51 – 339.92

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

359 – 458

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 226.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 44.3Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 228.07Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.8

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 79.07Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 170.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 90.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 2609, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

498.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 2609, 610

Auto

99.3 20%

Teleop

287.8 59%

Endgame

100.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 2935, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5032, 2935, 11270

Auto

77.3 24%

Teleop

171.3 53%

Endgame

74.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score498.5pts

Blue projected score339.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.6
Score range: 291–548
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580Season APEX575.6

99.3Auto77.3

287.8Teleop171.3

100.9Endgame74.9

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	90
teleop	204	279
endgame	93	84
foul	15	5
total	359	458

Result

Final score

359 – 458

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 pts

Match videos

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