FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.09 – 377.81

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

621 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±8.7

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 27.05Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 218.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 249.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.4 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 168.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 125.08Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 84.48Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 9785, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 9785, 7558

Auto

86.1 18%

Teleop

301.6 62%

Endgame

101.1 21%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 5024, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 5024, 5885

Auto

70.0 19%

Teleop

233.3 62%

Endgame

71.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score495.1pts

Blue projected score377.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.3
Score range: 330–543
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 268.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

744.1Season APEX451.4

86.1Auto70

301.6Teleop233.3

101.1Endgame71.2

46Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	95
teleop	337	212
endgame	137	99
foul	20	0
total	621	406

Result

Final score

621 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Match videos

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