Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
309.46 – 458.9
13%87%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
333 – 431
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 120.09Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 66.79Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 122.58Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451 ±10.4
Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 184.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120Event APEX 115.56Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 159.07Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4039, 3739, 8884
72
/ 100 compatProjected
309.5 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4039, 3739, 8884
Auto
60.5 20%
Teleop
170.4 57%
Endgame
67.4 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9098, 6978, 10554
78
/ 100 compatProjected
458.9 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9098, 6978, 10554
Auto
53.7 12%
Teleop
255.1 56%
Endgame
144.3 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score309.5pts
Blue projected score458.9pts
Red win probability13%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -149.4
- Score range
- 261–507
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
564.5Season APEX451
60.5Auto53.7
170.4Teleop255.1
67.4Endgame144.3
83Consistency31
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 79 | 68 |
| teleop | 209 | 268 |
| endgame | 45 | 85 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 333 | 431 |
Result
Final score
333 – 431
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts
Match videos
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