FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

659.06 – 282.72

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 213

Prediction missed · off by 364.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805 ±9.3

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 101.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 299.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 257.34Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 104.79Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 74.45Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 103.48Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

659.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4946, 1241

Auto

128.5 20%

Teleop

360.9 55%

Endgame

163.3 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8089, 188, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8089, 188, 4152

Auto

50.4 19%

Teleop

152.2 58%

Endgame

59.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score659.1pts

Blue projected score282.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 376.3
Score range: 235–707
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 269.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805Season APEX509.6

128.5Auto50.4

360.9Teleop152.2

163.3Endgame59.5

19Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	52
teleop	279	118
endgame	129	23
foul	5	20
total	0	213

Result

Final score

0 – 213

Prediction missed · off by 364.4 pts

Match videos

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