FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

429.9 – 545.06

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451 ±10.4

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 174.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 109.15Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 146.22Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 805 ±9.3

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 64.82Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 261.61Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 218.63Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 6978, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9098, 6978, 10554

Auto

63.2 15%

Teleop

243.8 57%

Endgame

120.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1310, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

545.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4946, 1241

Auto

134.3 23%

Teleop

322.4 55%

Endgame

134.6 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score429.9pts

Blue projected score545.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.2
Score range: 379–596
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 831 vs event baseline 285.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451Season APEX805

63.2Auto134.3

243.8Teleop322.4

120.1Endgame134.6

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	137
teleop	127	298
endgame	71	108
foul	5	5
total	283	548

Result

Final score

283 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Match videos

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