FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

547.9 – 333.75

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

520 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805 ±9.3

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 65.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 263.2Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 218.83Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 90.05Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 121.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 121.84Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

547.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4946, 1241

Auto

135.7 22%

Teleop

327.9 54%

Endgame

142.4 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 188, 8089, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 8089, 4152

Auto

52.8 17%

Teleop

173.4 55%

Endgame

89.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score547.9pts

Blue projected score333.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.2
Score range: 283–599
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 284.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805Season APEX509.6

135.7Auto52.8

327.9Teleop173.4

142.4Endgame89

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	50
teleop	284	111
endgame	81	8
foul	30	0
total	520	169

Result

Final score

520 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 pts

Match videos

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