Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
450.69 – 503.84
34%66%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
295 – 402
Prediction correct · off by 128.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 451 ±10.4
Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 181.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120Event APEX 116.55Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 152.63Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 744.1 ±8.7
Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 33.95Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 221.39Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 248.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9098, 6978, 10554
80
/ 100 compatProjected
450.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9098, 6978, 10554
Auto
60.5 14%
Teleop
257.8 58%
Endgame
129.4 29%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8349, 9785, 7558
80
/ 100 compatProjected
503.8 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8349, 9785, 7558
Auto
90.9 18%
Teleop
301.4 61%
Endgame
102.7 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score450.7pts
Blue projected score503.8pts
Red win probability34%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 22%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -53.1
- Score range
- 400–555
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
451Season APEX744.1
60.5Auto90.9
257.8Teleop301.4
129.4Endgame102.7
33Consistency46
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 85 |
| teleop | 154 | 222 |
| endgame | 58 | 90 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 295 | 402 |
Result
Final score
295 – 402
Prediction correct · off by 128.8 pts
Match videos
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