FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

369.38 – 530.48

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

564 – 647

Prediction correct · off by 155.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.8

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 86.97Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 183.02Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 99.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 805 ±9.3

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 60.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 257.79Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 212.32Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5032, 2935, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5032, 2935, 11270

Auto

76.6 21%

Teleop

200.2 56%

Endgame

83.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1310, 4946, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

530.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 4946, 1241

Auto

132.4 22%

Teleop

323.7 53%

Endgame

149.7 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score369.4pts

Blue projected score530.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.1
Score range: 318–581
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1211 vs event baseline 281.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.6Season APEX805

76.6Auto132.4

200.2Teleop323.7

83.5Endgame149.7

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	158
teleop	302	352
endgame	135	102
foul	5	35
total	564	647

Result

Final score

564 – 647

Prediction correct · off by 155.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.