FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

630.52 – 168.11

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

774 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.3 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 203.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 138.12Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 288.79Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.1 ±10.4

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 24.39Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 116.5Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 27.22Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 10554, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

630.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2702, 10554, 4946

Auto

119.7 19%

Teleop

376.8 60%

Endgame

132.6 21%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9589, 6978, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9589, 6978, 2634

Auto

35.0 21%

Teleop

90.8 54%

Endgame

43.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.9 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score630.5pts

Blue projected score168.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 462.4
Score range: 120–679
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 952 vs event baseline 267.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.3Season APEX263.1

119.7Auto35

376.8Teleop90.8

132.6Endgame43.3

40Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	43
teleop	426	94
endgame	209	41
foul	0	0
total	774	178

Result

Final score

774 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree