FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.16 – 133.19

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±10.5

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 116.52Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 35.21Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 13.43Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±11.7

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 19.79Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 76.05Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 37.35Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8884, 6632, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8884, 6632, 11002

Auto

54.5 34%

Teleop

86.0 53%

Endgame

20.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5719, 2852, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5719, 2852, 8789

Auto

14.2 11%

Teleop

81.7 61%

Endgame

38.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score165.2pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32
Score range: 85–213
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 268.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.3Season APEX257.7

54.5Auto14.2

86Teleop81.7

20.3Endgame38.4

60Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	8
teleop	119	21
endgame	49	18
foul	5	0
total	204	47

Result

Final score

204 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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