FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.32 – 369.37

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±9.8

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 62.55Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 233.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 13.83Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.8 ±10.4

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 63.36Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 176.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 129.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 610, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4917, 610, 854

Auto

61.1 20%

Teleop

168.5 56%

Endgame

70.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3739, 9098, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3739, 9098, 5024

Auto

55.9 15%

Teleop

213.2 57%

Endgame

102.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score310.3pts

Blue projected score369.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.1
Score range: 262–417
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 268.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX433.8

61.1Auto55.9

168.5Teleop213.2

70.5Endgame102.4

65Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	57
teleop	87	197
endgame	46	124
foul	0	0
total	221	378

Result

Final score

221 – 378

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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