FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.62 – 208.85

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.3 ±9.3

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 69.09Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 24.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 242.51Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 105.52Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 53.79Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 49.54Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 188, 5408, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 188, 5408, 7558

Auto

47.4 15%

Teleop

186.4 58%

Endgame

89.4 28%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8089, 5031, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8089, 5031, 8729

Auto

42.0 21%

Teleop

115.5 59%

Endgame

38.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score335.6pts

Blue projected score208.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.8
Score range: 161–384
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.3Season APEX330.7

47.4Auto42

186.4Teleop115.5

89.4Endgame38.9

41Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	41
teleop	177	82
endgame	108	56
foul	15	15
total	420	194

Result

Final score

420 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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