FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.27 – 230.61

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 103.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596 ±9.8

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 41.78Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 80.72Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 107.77Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±9.8

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 103.91Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 49.02Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 77.68Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9062, 11270, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9062, 11270, 4039

Auto

51.7 23%

Teleop

116.3 51%

Endgame

58.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 2013, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 781, 2013, 5032

Auto

47.5 20%

Teleop

104.3 45%

Endgame

82.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.3pts

Blue projected score230.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.3
Score range: 182–279
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 268.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596Season APEX315.1

51.7Auto47.5

116.3Teleop104.3

58.8Endgame82.3

41Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	30
teleop	191	48
endgame	84	49
foul	20	0
total	333	127

Result

Final score

333 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 103.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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