FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.87 – 218.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±10.4

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.47Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 50.96Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 93.44Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.7 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 161.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 27.97Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 28.99Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6865, 2609, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6865, 2609, 7480

Auto

40.5 24%

Teleop

92.5 56%

Endgame

33.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 4951, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3683, 4951, 3543

Auto

49.8 23%

Teleop

113.1 52%

Endgame

54.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.9pts

Blue projected score218.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.3
Score range: 117–266
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.5Season APEX364.7

40.5Auto49.8

92.5Teleop113.1

33.4Endgame54.9

81Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	58
teleop	58	176
endgame	32	69
foul	0	0
total	115	303

Result

Final score

115 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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