FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.57 – 206.01

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 111.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 16.41Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 67.01Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 10.15Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.7 ±10.4

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 113.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 31.65Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 61.02Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 5885, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 771, 5885, 10611

Auto

41.3 45%

Teleop

26.9 29%

Endgame

24.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1310, 10167, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1310, 10167, 1229

Auto

40.8 21%

Teleop

98.1 50%

Endgame

56.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score93.6pts

Blue projected score206pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.4
Score range: 45–255
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 270.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.5Season APEX275.7

41.3Auto40.8

26.9Teleop98.1

24.3Endgame56.2

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	121	35
endgame	33	35
foul	30	5
total	210	99

Result

Final score

210 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 111.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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