FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.84 – 517.07

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.6 ±9.9

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 212.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 32.11Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 14.74Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.7 ±9.8

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 71.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 268.26Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 177.52Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 8349, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9785, 8349, 9782

Auto

66.0 25%

Teleop

160.3 61%

Endgame

35.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 1241, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

517.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4688, 1241, 2935

Auto

69.2 14%

Teleop

294.8 58%

Endgame

146.5 29%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score259.8pts

Blue projected score517.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -257.2
Score range: 212–565
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 269.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.6Season APEX683.7

66Auto69.2

160.3Teleop294.8

35.1Endgame146.5

34Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	133
teleop	145	189
endgame	88	83
foul	15	5
total	277	410

Result

Final score

277 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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