FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.47 – 332.57

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

298 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 92.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 55.43Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX -Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 83.43Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.2 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 171.43Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 83.43Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 77.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8089, 4917, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8089, 4917, 5024

Auto

44.2 24%

Teleop

101.1 56%

Endgame

35.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 1229, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1241, 1229, 2013

Auto

60.0 18%

Teleop

206.9 62%

Endgame

65.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180.5pts

Blue projected score332.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.1
Score range: 135–378
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 249.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX583.2

31.7Auto60

80.3Teleop206.9

26.9Endgame65.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	15
teleop	158	250
endgame	64	130
foul	20	5
total	298	400

Result

Final score

298 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 92.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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