FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.57 – 272.5

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496 ±11.2

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 276.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 37.81Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 27.75Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.2 ±9.8

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 97.76Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 76.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 97.89Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 8729, 8789

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4946, 8729, 8789

Auto

68.6 21%

Teleop

177.5 53%

Endgame

86.0 26%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8089, 11270, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8089, 11270, 781

Auto

79.5 30%

Teleop

135.1 50%

Endgame

53.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.6pts

Blue projected score272.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: 225–390
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 267.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496Season APEX487.2

68.6Auto79.5

177.5Teleop135.1

86Endgame53.9

70Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	68
teleop	285	180
endgame	103	86
foul	0	15
total	468	349

Result

Final score

468 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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