FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.03 – 139.26

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508 ±10.4

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 50.41Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 105.95Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 173.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±11

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 30.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 93.62Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 14.83Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5031, 4039, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

330 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5031, 4039, 9098

Auto

41.7 13%

Teleop

190.6 57%

Endgame

99.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 7480, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4951, 7480, 11002

Auto

41.9 30%

Teleop

66.6 48%

Endgame

29.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330pts

Blue projected score139.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 190.8
Score range: 91–378
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 268.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508Season APEX248.9

41.7Auto41.9

190.6Teleop66.6

99.2Endgame29.2

33Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	57
teleop	201	40
endgame	91	32
foul	0	0
total	373	129

Result

Final score

373 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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