FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.76 – 139.4

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.2 ±9.8

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 53.4Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 115.91Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 19.45Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±9.8

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 48.25Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 65.79Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 25.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2609, 8884, 854

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2609, 8884, 854

Auto

64.8 35%

Teleop

101.9 55%

Endgame

18.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2013, 5885, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2013, 5885, 5408

Auto

47.6 34%

Teleop

51.6 37%

Endgame

40.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score188.8pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.4
Score range: 91–237
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 269.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.2Season APEX331.6

64.8Auto47.6

101.9Teleop51.6

18.6Endgame40.9

83Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	32
teleop	89	100
endgame	29	26
foul	0	0
total	167	158

Result

Final score

167 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.