FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.32 – 570.74

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

291 – 644

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±10.4

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 68.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 111.86Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 61.16Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 824.5 ±9.3

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 237.69Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 263.03Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 70.02Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4688, 6978, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4688, 6978, 3739

Auto

25.2 10%

Teleop

160.4 65%

Endgame

60.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 1241, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

570.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7558, 1241, 5032

Auto

69.4 12%

Teleop

338.8 60%

Endgame

159.1 28%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score241.3pts

Blue projected score570.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -329.4
Score range: 193–619
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.8Season APEX824.5

25.2Auto69.4

160.4Teleop338.8

60.4Endgame159.1

66Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	125
teleop	143	367
endgame	95	142
foul	0	10
total	291	644

Result

Final score

291 – 644

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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