FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.04 – 376.16

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±9.8

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.48Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 21.7Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 210.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±9.8

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 21.89Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 117.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 236.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10167, 9589, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10167, 9589, 9785

Auto

68.5 26%

Teleop

143.6 55%

Endgame

49.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 1310, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6865, 1310, 610

Auto

74.8 20%

Teleop

193.3 52%

Endgame

101.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score262pts

Blue projected score376.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.1
Score range: 214–424
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 266.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.8Season APEX364.5

68.5Auto74.8

143.6Teleop193.3

49Endgame101.4

56Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	87
teleop	166	142
endgame	30	108
foul	5	0
total	296	337

Result

Final score

296 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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