FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

295.39 – 307.51

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 104.22Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 25.63Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 165.54Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.9 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 69.63Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 51.08Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 186.8Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 2634, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4152, 2634, 3683

Auto

40.2 14%

Teleop

182.8 63%

Endgame

67.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1229, 9062, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1229, 9062, 2935

Auto

43.1 15%

Teleop

169.2 57%

Endgame

84.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.4pts

Blue projected score307.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.1
Score range: 247–356
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 266.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431Season APEX430.9

40.2Auto43.1

182.8Teleop169.2

67.2Endgame84.6

49Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	27
teleop	223	76
endgame	38	58
foul	0	45
total	297	206

Result

Final score

297 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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