FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.02 – 126.14

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±10.4

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 22.26Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 12.16Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 56.6Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±11

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 17.82Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 85.47Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 22.85Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 771, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3543, 771, 4917

Auto

31.3 39%

Teleop

26.6 33%

Endgame

22.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10611, 2852, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10611, 2852, 9782

Auto

22.4 17%

Teleop

58.7 45%

Endgame

50.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: 43–174
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 268.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.5Season APEX214

31.3Auto22.4

26.6Teleop58.7

22.5Endgame50.4

31Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	92	22
endgame	22	7
foul	0	0
total	155	46

Result

Final score

155 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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