FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.24 – 170.45

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 100.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627.8 ±9.3

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 56.84Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 203.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 122.48Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.1 ±9.3

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 38.69Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 88.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 42.9Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 2702, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2013, 2702, 8884

Auto

87.7 23%

Teleop

221.5 58%

Endgame

72.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 11270, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4951, 11270, 8349

Auto

56.6 33%

Teleop

83.8 49%

Endgame

31.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.2pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.8
Score range: 121–432
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627.8Season APEX427.1

87.7Auto56.6

221.5Teleop83.8

72.8Endgame31.6

37Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	31
teleop	151	6
endgame	57	6
foul	0	0
total	309	43

Result

Final score

309 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 100.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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