Qualification · Qualification 81
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
103.84 – 223.64
18%82%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
307 – 273
Prediction missed · off by 126.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 388 ±11.7
Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 11.1Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 88.36Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 4.38Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 58.93Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120Event APEX 105.41Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 59.3Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8789, 4039, 5408
30
/ 100 compatProjected
103.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8789, 4039, 5408
Auto
17.6 16%
Teleop
36.7 34%
Endgame
52.8 49%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 188, 6978, 5885
56
/ 100 compatProjected
223.6 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 188, 6978, 5885
Auto
43.5 20%
Teleop
105.7 49%
Endgame
65.6 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.16
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score103.8pts
Blue projected score223.6pts
Red win probability18%
Event bonus sample228alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -119.8
- Score range
- 55–273
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
388Season APEX464.6
17.6Auto43.5
36.7Teleop105.7
52.8Endgame65.6
45Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 48 | 65 |
| teleop | 152 | 181 |
| endgame | 102 | 17 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 307 | 273 |
Result
Final score
307 – 273
Prediction missed · off by 126.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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