FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.09 – 367.31

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±10.4

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 146.49Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 52.31Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 33.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.2 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 275.31Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 29.3Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 62.7Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5024, 8729, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5024, 8729, 10167

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

125.5 57%

Endgame

63.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 6632, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4946, 6632, 4688

Auto

85.7 24%

Teleop

209.8 58%

Endgame

66.1 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score232.1pts

Blue projected score367.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.2
Score range: 184–415
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.5Season APEX530.2

32.7Auto85.7

125.5Teleop209.8

63.3Endgame66.1

84Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	81
teleop	68	233
endgame	46	123
foul	0	0
total	144	437

Result

Final score

144 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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