FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.3 – 293.69

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±10.4

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 46.6Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 55.88Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 111.82Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530 ±9.8

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 47.39Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 49.63Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 196.67Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5031, 3739, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5031, 3739, 1310

Auto

36.9 17%

Teleop

133.7 63%

Endgame

42.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2609, 1229, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2609, 1229, 9785

Auto

62.0 22%

Teleop

183.8 64%

Endgame

41.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score214.3pts

Blue projected score293.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.4
Score range: 166–342
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 268.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.8Season APEX530

36.9Auto62

133.7Teleop183.8

42Endgame41.7

28Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	105
teleop	149	238
endgame	70	81
foul	0	10
total	275	434

Result

Final score

275 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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