FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.75 – 268.66

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±10.4

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 56.03Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 22.46Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 19.26Rank 49Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.7 ±9.8

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 218.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 13.99Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 36.32Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 9589, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4917, 9589, 6865

Auto

31.0 33%

Teleop

38.2 41%

Endgame

24.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 3543, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7558, 3543, 9062

Auto

39.0 15%

Teleop

153.6 59%

Endgame

66.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score97.8pts

Blue projected score268.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.9
Score range: 50–317
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 267.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.9Season APEX550.7

31Auto39

38.2Teleop153.6

24.3Endgame66.1

90Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	62
teleop	51	254
endgame	29	124
foul	10	0
total	129	440

Result

Final score

129 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.