FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.14 – 338.62

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

225 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.4 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 77.46Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 101.93Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 111.75Rank 13Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 279.09Rank 1Record 11-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 20.68Rank 44Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 38.85Rank 37Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5032, 7480, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5032, 7480, 4152

Auto

48.8 17%

Teleop

163.4 57%

Endgame

76.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 771, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1241, 771, 2634

Auto

54.7 16%

Teleop

188.0 56%

Endgame

91.4 27%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score291.1pts

Blue projected score338.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.5
Score range: 243–387
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 268.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.4Season APEX497

48.8Auto54.7

163.4Teleop188

76.7Endgame91.4

79Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	21
teleop	146	95
endgame	35	94
foul	0	15
total	225	225

Result

Final score

225 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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