FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Technology Division

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.9 – 45.49

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.6 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 30.39Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 141.3Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 185.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.8 ±11.6

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 7.65Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 14.34Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 23.5Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 3683, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8349, 3683, 2702

Auto

53.8 15%

Teleop

230.4 65%

Endgame

71.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 854, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11002, 854, 9782

Auto

31.6 72%

Teleop

14.8 34%

Endgame

-2.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.9pts

Blue projected score45.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample228alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 311.4
Score range: -3–405
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 267.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.6Season APEX156.8

53.8Auto31.6

230.4Teleop14.8

71.5Endgame-2.4

64Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	21
teleop	383	48
endgame	93	14
foul	5	0
total	578	83

Result

Final score

578 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.